貿易商當心eBay長的尾巴

您聽見了警告每十二次關於scammers，犯規推銷者，并且扳手在eBay，最著名和臭名昭著網上拍賣選址。 現在，美國研究員有一個新的詞組，不是買家當心，但 警告墨卡托貿易商當心。

中心和商業情報的Zhangxi林先進的Analytics，在得克薩斯技術大學，在拉博克，事務和經濟Labovitz學校的Dahui李，在明尼蘇達的大學，在MIS的部門的Duluth和韋恩・黃，事務學院，在俄亥俄大學，禮物對eBay貿易的一個新看法在電子商務國際定期刊物的一個即將到來的問題， (2007年， 5， 499-517)。

隊發現買賣的名譽的發行在eBay跟隨一條鐘形曲線一次申請對數變革。 這曲線暗示名譽變動成比例隨著時間的過去，於波動是相似的在利率和股票價格，林告訴的有效數字。

「賣主的總名譽比分可能表明賣主的容量」，他解釋， 「因此賣主的容量成比例隨著時間的過去增長比分手段的記錄正常的發行」。 負反饋率的記錄正常的發行暗示賣主的名譽傾向於隨著時間的過去停留在好或壞的同一個水平。 換句話說，林說， 「賣主的當前名譽比分可能相當很好告訴未來表現可能」。

隊也考慮了所謂的「80/20規則」，是所有在我們附近和共同地被知道在經濟方面作為「長的尾巴」。 Vilfredo Pareto首先放80/20現象入詞認為80%後果源於20%起因。 它相等申請與營銷現象例如查尋引擎結果頁，它在Bose愛因斯坦凝析油和其他原子行為做到物理學。 克里斯・安徒生在 長的尾巴blog 談論80/20規則的真實的意思詳細并且建議考慮Pareto的詞一個過分單純的方式由詞組舉例證明例如， 「80/20規則是所有在我們附近。

仅主要演播室影片的20%將是命中。 同樣對電視展示、比賽和大量經營書- 20%全部是真實的」。 它是長的尾巴的那80個部分的80/20。 提到發行不同於非常少數在上面和大多數足跡往零的響鈴曲線的長的尾巴。

林、李和黃鋸長的尾巴在行動不僅在網上交易容量在他們的eBay活動的研究中，而且在貿易商負反饋比分。 In other words, there are a very few sellers selling a lot of lots, and the number of sellers selling fewer and few items declines as a long tail graph with a few sellers, selling a few items, but many, many sellers simply being one-off ebay traders. Similarly, there are simply many many, sellers with one or two negative feedbacks. Again, as you’d expect.

The team also found that most complaints from buyers were not in fact due to online fraud, contrary to many of the media scare stories and hype surrounding eBay. Instead, it turns out that buyers could be more responsible for online disputes than sellers. A negative comment against a seller is not necessarily related to fraud, Lin says. “Unpleasant results can have different ’shades of grey’, reflecting the status of different complaints,” Lin says, “There are many reasons a buyer could be dissatisfied: services (seller’s email response), third party problems, such as delivery.

To assess the risk level associated with a given seller, a buyer must look into more of the details of the seller’s previous negative comments. Conversely, buyers may make genuine mistakes in their online trading, which can also lead to a negative feedback comment. Misreading an ad or auction and sending the wrong shipping address are two common mistakes.
So here are Lin’s top tips for buyers and for sellers alike:

For buyers

• Always check the seller’s reputation carefully and look closely at complaints.
• Read the item information in detail especially if the item description is wordy or ambiguous.
• Don’t be too hasty to post negative feedback, investigate the problem, first and avoid retaliatory negative feedback from the seller.
• Be strategic if you must post a negative comment.
• Read between the lines when checking out a seller’s star rating, such ranking is not perfect.

For sellers

• Provide adequate information about your products because there is a gap between your profit margin and a buyer’s expectations.
• Resolve disputes politely or risk retaliation.
• Deal with buyers as if you are dealing face to face and you will get positive feedback.