Traders Beware the eBay Long Tail商贸谨防易趣长尾

You’ve heard the warnings a dozen times about scammers, spammers, and spanners on eBay, the most famous and infamous of the online auction sites.你听过的警告12次左右陷阱，垃圾邮件，并在易趣上扳手，最有名的和臭名昭著的在线拍卖网站。 Now, US researchers have a new phrase, not buyer beware, but caveat mercator , trader beware.现在，美国研究人员有一个新的词组，而不是买方提防，但告诫墨 ，商人要小心了。

Zhangxi Lin of the Center for Advanced Analytics and Business Intelligence, at Texas Tech University, in Lubbock, Dahui Li of the Labovitz School of Business and Economics, at the University of Minnesota, in Duluth, and Wayne Huang of the Department of MIS, College of Business, at Ohio University, present a new perspective on eBay trading in a forthcoming issue of the International Journal of Electronic Business, (2007, 5, 499-517). Zhangxi林中心的高级分析和商业智能，在得克萨斯理工大学，在拉伯克，李大辉的Labovitz商学院和经济学，在美国明尼苏达大学，在德卢斯，和鲁尼黄部的信息管理系统，高校商业，在俄亥俄州立大学，现在一个新的角度易趣贸易在即将出版的国际杂志电子商务（ 2007 ， 5 ， 499-517 ） 。

The team found that the distribution of buying and selling reputation on eBay follows a bell-shaped curve once a logarithmic transformation has been applied.研究小组发现，分布的购买和出售在eBay上的声誉遵循钟形曲线一次数已转化应用。 This curve implies that reputation changes proportionally over time, which is similar to fluctuations in interest rates and stock prices, Lin told Significant Figures.这意味着，曲线变化的声誉比例随着时间的推移，这是类似的波动，利率和股票价格，林告诉重要人物。

“A seller’s total reputation score can indicate the seller’s capacity,” he explains, “So the lognormal distribution of the score mean the seller’s capacity grows proportionally over time.” The lognormal distribution of negative feedback rate implies that the reputation of sellers tends to stay at the same level of good or bad over time. “卖家的整体声誉评分可以显示卖方的能力， ”他解释说， “所以，对数正态分布的评分意味着卖方的能力的增长比例随着时间的推移。 ”对数正态分布的负反馈率，意味着卖家的声誉往往停留在同一水平的好或坏随着时间的推移。 In other words, Lin says, “a seller’s current reputation scores can pretty well tell the likelihood of future performance.”换句话说，林说， “出卖人目前的声誉评分可以很好的可能性告诉未来的业绩。 ”

The team also considered the so-called “80/20 rule”, which is all around us and is commonly known in economics as the “long tail”.该小组还认为，所谓的“ 80/20规则” ，这是我们周围的一切，是通常称为经济学中的“长尾巴” 。 Vilfredo Pareto first put the 80/20 phenomena into words saying that 80% of consequences stem from 20% of the causes.经济学家帕累托首先提出的80/20现象说成的话， 80 ％的后果源于20 ％的原因。 It applies equally to marketing phenomena such as search engines results pages as it does to physical science in Bose-Einstein condensates and other atomic behavior.它同样适用于营销现象，如搜索引擎结果网页，因为它并不以物理科学中玻色爱因斯坦凝聚和其他原子的行为。 Chris Anderson on the克里斯安德森的 Long Tail blog长尾博客 discusses the true meaning of the 80/20 rule in depth and suggests that a simplistic way of considering Pareto’s words are exemplified by phrases such as, “The 80/20 rule is all around us.讨论了真正意义上的80/20规则的深度和建议，一个简单的方式考虑帕累托的话体现词组，如“的80/20规则是我们周围的一切。

Only 20 percent of major studio films will be hits.只有百分之二十的主要电影制片厂将安打。 The same is true for TV shows, games, and mass-market books - 20 percent all.” It’s that 80 part of the 80/20 that is the long tail.这同样适用于电视节目，游戏和大众市场的书籍-所有的百分之二十。 “这是8 0的一部分， 8 0/20这是尾巴很长。 The long tail referring to a distribution unlike the bell curve in which very few are at the top and the vast majority trail away towards zero.在长长的尾巴指的是分配不同的钟形曲线中极少数的顶部和广大线索实现了零。

Lin, Li, and Huang saw the long tail in action not only in online transaction volumes in their study of eBay activity but also in the negative feedback scores of traders.林，李，黄看到了长长的尾巴在行动不仅在网上交易量在其研究易趣活动，而且在负反馈分数贸易商。 In other words, there are a very few sellers selling a lot of lots, and the number of sellers selling fewer and few items declines as a long tail graph with a few sellers, selling a few items, but many, many sellers simply being one-off ebay traders.换句话说，有极少数卖家出售了很多很多，而一些销售商销售较少，少数项目下降为长长的尾巴图几个卖家，出售几个项目，但许多销售商仅仅是一小康易趣交易。 Similarly, there are simply many many, sellers with one or two negative feedbacks.同样，也仅仅是很多很多，卖家与一个或两个负反馈。 Again, as you’d expect.同样地，您希望。

The team also found that most complaints from buyers were not in fact due to online fraud, contrary to many of the media scare stories and hype surrounding eBay.该小组还发现，大多数投诉买家事实上并非由于网上欺诈，违反了许多媒体恐慌的故事和大肆宣传易趣。 Instead, it turns out that buyers could be more responsible for online disputes than sellers.相反，它证明，买家可以更负责任的在线争端高于卖方。 A negative comment against a seller is not necessarily related to fraud, Lin says.负面评论对卖方并不一定是与欺诈有关的，林说。 “Unpleasant results can have different ’shades of grey’, reflecting the status of different complaints,” Lin says, “There are many reasons a buyer could be dissatisfied: services (seller’s email response), third party problems, such as delivery. “不愉快的结果可以有不同的'深浅的灰色' ，反映了不同的投诉， ”林说， “有很多原因买家可不满意：服务（卖方的电子邮件回复） ，第三方的问题，如交付。

To assess the risk level associated with a given seller, a buyer must look into more of the details of the seller’s previous negative comments.为了评估相关的风险水平与某一卖方，买方必须寻找到更多的细节卖方以前的负面评论。 Conversely, buyers may make genuine mistakes in their online trading, which can also lead to a negative feedback comment.相反，买家可能取得真正的错误在其网上交易，这也可能导致消极的反馈意见。 Misreading an ad or auction and sending the wrong shipping address are two common mistakes.误读的广告或拍卖，并发出了错误的送货地址有两个常见的错误。
So here are Lin’s top tips for buyers and for sellers alike:因此，这里有林前提示买家和卖家都：

For buyers买家

• Always check the seller’s reputation carefully and look closely at complaints.经常检查卖家的信誉认真仔细研究投诉。
• Read the item information in detail especially if the item description is wordy or ambiguous.读了该项目的详细资料尤其是如果该项目描述罗嗦或含糊不清。
• Don’t be too hasty to post negative feedback, investigate the problem, first and avoid retaliatory negative feedback from the seller.不要太匆忙后负反馈，调查的问题，首先是避免报复负反馈从卖方。
• Be strategic if you must post a negative comment.是战略性的，如果你必须张贴的负面评论。
• Read between the lines when checking out a seller’s star rating, such ranking is not perfect.阅读字里行间当检查出卖方的五星评级，例如排名并不完美。

For sellers卖家

• Provide adequate information about your products because there is a gap between your profit margin and a buyer’s expectations.提供足够的信息您的产品，因为有差距的利润率和买方的期望。
• Resolve disputes politely or risk retaliation.礼貌地解决纠纷或风险的报复。
• Deal with buyers as if you are dealing face to face and you will get positive feedback.处理作为买家如果您正在处理面对，你将获得积极的反馈。