Global Warming Odds On全球气候变暖的赔率

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climatic changes seen around the world are “据政府间气候变化专门委员会（警监会）气候变化，看到世界各地的“ very likely很可能 ” to have a human cause. “有一个人的事业。 By “climatic changes” one must assume they’re referring to the ones we discussed and that many have dismissed by some scientists previously (maybe even one in ten!).由“气候变化”一，必须承担他们是指那些我们讨论，而且许多已被解雇一些科学家以前（甚至一在10 ！ ） 。

But, interestingly by the term “very likely”, the IPCC actually means greater than 90% probability.不过，有趣的，由任期“很可能” ，警监会实际上是指大于90 ％的概率。 So, there’sa one in ten chance that humans are not to blame for that vast array of climate changes we’ve been experiencing of late -因此，有一在10机会，人类是不是咎由自取认为，大量的气候变化，我们已经经历了晚- snow-free slopes雪免费斜坡 across Europe,在整个欧洲， Californian freezes美国加州冻结 , UK having the warmest January for 90 years, an increased frequency of strong hurricanes, oh wait a minute that didn’t happen). ，英国拥有最热烈的一月为90年来，一频率的增加强烈的飓风，哦且慢说，没有这回事） 。 It’s all very confusing and the arrival of a book in the mail today by Lawrence E Joseph entitles这一切都非常混乱和的到来，一本书，在邮件中，今天由劳伦斯e约瑟夫有权 Apocalypse 2012 2012年的启示 puts paid to any long-term plans we may have regardless of whether or not global warming is anthropogenic or not.把支付给任何长远的计划，我们可能不管或不全球变暖是人为或没有。

In his book, Joseph suggests that we’re all doomed (to paraphrase Frazer from 1970s BritCom在他的书中，约瑟夫表明，我们都注定（段弗雷泽从20世纪70年代britcom Dad’s Army爸爸的军队 ), but doom could arrive in the form of a long-overdue mass extinction, a solar radiation flare, migration of our solar system into a hostile part of our galaxy, the Yellowstone caldera…the list goes on. ） ，但厄运可以到达，在形式的长期逾期未绝灭，太阳辐射的光晕，迁移我们的太阳能系统成为一个敌对的一部分，我们的银河，黄石火山… ，不胜枚举。 The name incidentally is a mash up of Apocalypse Now, of course, 2001: A Space Odyssey (possibly), allusion to the Mayan prediction of the end of the world, and a tribute to Canadian prog rock band Rush, a century too early.名称顺便是一个土豆成立的启示，现在，当然， 2001年：太空奥德赛（可能） ，典故，以马雅人预测年底世界，赞扬加拿大程式摇滚乐队繁忙，一个世纪还为时过早。

With all this doom and gloom on the horizon, the strapline of Joseph’s book - “You’ll get a good chuckle” - is either heavily sarcastic, resigned, or misguided.与这一切厄运和忧愁在地平线上， strapline约瑟夫的书-“您将获得一个良好的c huckle” -或者是大量风凉话，辞职，或被误导。 I cannot quite tell from a quick glance, I’ll get back to you on that one, when I’ve finished it.我不能告诉相当，从快速浏览，我将回到你这里就一个，当我完成它。

Anyway, that IPCC 90% has me worried.无论如何，警监会的90 ％已我担心。 Nine times out of ten is certainly “very likely” but people back horses with longer odds and win. 9倍出10当然是“很可能” ，但人回马，用较长的赔率和双赢。 So, maybe all the doom-saying is wrong, we’re not to blame, and we’re actually headed for a nice stable period in earth’s history.因此，也许所有的末日-说是错的，我们无法咎由自取，和我们实际上为首的一个好的稳定的时期，在地球的历史。 Yeah, right!是啊，没错！

In case you hadn’t spotted it the IPCC’s report was launched to the public on Groundhog Day.在情况下，您还没有发现它，警监会的报告是推出向公众土拨鼠节。 Haven’t we been here before?我们不是在这里之前？