Global Warming Odds On

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climatic changes seen around the world are “very likely” to have a human cause. By “climatic changes” one must assume they’re referring to the ones we discussed and that many have dismissed by some scientists previously (maybe even one in ten!).

But, interestingly by the term “very likely”, the IPCC actually means greater than 90% probability. So, there’s a one in ten chance that humans are not to blame for that vast array of climate changes we’ve been experiencing of late - snow-free slopes across Europe, Californian freezes, UK having the warmest January for 90 years, an increased frequency of strong hurricanes, oh wait a minute that didn’t happen). It’s all very confusing and the arrival of a book in the mail today by Lawrence E Joseph entitles Apocalypse 2012puts paid to any long-term plans we may have regardless of whether or not global warming is anthropogenic or not.

In his book, Joseph suggests that we’re all doomed (to paraphrase Frazer from 1970s BritCom Dad’s Army), but doom could arrive in the form of a long-overdue mass extinction, a solar radiation flare, migration of our solar system into a hostile part of our galaxy, the Yellowstone caldera…the list goes on. The name incidentally is a mash up of Apocalypse Now, of course, 2001: A Space Odyssey (possibly), allusion to the Mayan prediction of the end of the world, and a tribute to Canadian prog rock band Rush, a century too early.

With all this doom and gloom on the horizon, the strapline of Joseph’s book - “You’ll get a good chuckle” - is either heavily sarcastic, resigned, or misguided. I cannot quite tell from a quick glance, I’ll get back to you on that one, when I’ve finished it.

Anyway, that IPCC 90% has me worried. Nine times out of ten is certainly “very likely” but people back horses with longer odds and win. So, maybe all the doom-saying is wrong, we’re not to blame, and we’re actually headed for a nice stable period in earth’s history. Yeah, right!

In case you hadn’t spotted it the IPCC’s report was launched to the public on Groundhog Day. Haven’t we been here before?